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Ngokutsho kwe-balance sheet yeveki ekhutshwe namhlanje, i-Fed ilahlekelwe yi-532 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwii-asethi ukususela ekuphakameni kwayo ngo-Ephreli, izisa i-asethi iyonke kwi-8.43 yeebhiliyoni zeebhiliyoni, ephantsi kakhulu ukususela ngoSeptemba 2021. Xa kuthelekiswa ne-balance sheet ngenyanga ngaphambili (ikhutshwe ngoJanuwari 5), ii-asethi zizonke zehle nge-74 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
Ukususela ekuphakameni ekuqaleni kukaJuni, i-Fed's Holdings ye-US Treasuries iye yawa i-374 yezigidigidi ukuya kwi-5.34 yezigidigidi zeedola, inqanaba eliphantsi kakhulu ukususela ngoSeptemba 2021. Kule nyanga idlulileyo, i-Fed's holds in Treasuries yase-US iwele i-60.4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, ngaphezu kwe-$ 60 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
Iibhilikhwe ze-Treasury kunye neebhondi zibhalwa kwi-balance sheet phakathi kwaye ekupheleni kwenyanga, xa i-Fed ifumana ixabiso labo lobuso. Umda wokubuyisela umva ngenyanga yi-60 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
Ukusukela ekuphakameni, i-Fed inqumle i-115 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zokubamba kwayo kwi-MBS, kubandakanya i-17 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwinyanga ephelileyo, ukuzisa yonke ibhalansi ye-2.62 yezigidigidi.
Isixa esipheleleyo se-MBS esithathiweyo kwiphepha lomncono nyanga nganye ukusukela oko yaqalwa i-QT ibe ngaphantsi kwe-35 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
I-MBS iyanyamalala kwiphepha lomncono ngokuyintloko njengomsebenzi wokudlula kwiintlawulo eziphambili ezifunyanwa ngabo bonke abanini-mali xa behlawula i-mortgage, njengokubuyisela imali-mboleko okanye ukuthengisa ikhaya elibanjiswayo, kunye neentlawulo ze-mortgage eziqhelekileyo.
Njengoko amaxabiso emali-mboleko enyuka ukusuka kwi-3% ukuya ngaphezulu kwe-6%, abantu basabhatala imali-mboleko, kodwa imali yemali mboleko yehla, ukuthengiswa kwezindlu kuye kwehla, kwaye ukuhamba kweentlawulo eziphambili kuye kwanyamalala.
Ukutshintshwa kweentlawulo zenqununu kunciphisa ibhalansi ye-MBS, njengoko kubonisiwe ngokuhla kwe-zigzag kwitshathi engezantsi.
Ijika elinyukayo kwitshati laqala xa i-Fed isathenga i-MBS, kodwa phakathi kukaSeptemba lo mkhuba ongcolileyo wayeka ngokupheleleyo kwaye i-curve ephezulu kwitshathi yanyamalala.
Sisalindele nayiphi na inkcazo evela kwi-Fed ukuba icinga ngokunyanisekileyo ukuthengisa i-MBS ngokuthe ngqo ukuzisa umda wenyanga we-rollover kwi-35 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Kwinqanaba langoku, kuya kufuneka athengise phakathi kwe-15 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kunye ne-20 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngenyanga ukuze afikelele kwi-cap. Iirhuluneli ezininzi ze-Fed ziye zakhankanya ukuba i-Fed inokugqibela ukuya kwelo cala.
Qaphela kwitshathi engentla ukuba ngo-2019 kunye no-2020, i-MBS yaphuma kwi-balance kwizinga elingaphezulu kwesilingi njengoko amaxabiso emali-mboleko ehla, ekhokelela kukwanda kwenkxaso-mali kunye nokuthengiswa kwezindlu. I-QT-1 iphele ngoJulayi ka-2019 kodwa i-MBS iqhubekile nokuhla de kwangoFebruwari ka-2020 xa iFed yathatha indawo yayo ngoNondyebo base-US kwaye iphepha layo lomncono laqala ukunyuka kwakhona ngo-Agasti ka-2019 njengoko kubonisiwe kwitshathi engasentla.
I-Fed ithe ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukuba ayifuni ukuba ne-MBS kwiphepha layo lomncono, ngokuyinxenye ngenxa yokuba ukuhamba kwemali akuqikeleleki kwaye kungalingani kangangokuba kudibanise umgaqo-nkqubo wemali, kwaye ngokuyinxenye ngenxa yokuba ukuba ne-MBS kuya kuphazamisa iTyala lecandelo labucala (ityala lendlu) liphezulu kunelo. ezinye iintlobo zamatyala ecandelo labucala. Yiyo loo nto sinokubona kungekudala intetho enzulu malunga nokuthengiswa ngokuthe ngqo kwe-MBS.
Iipremiyamu ezingahlawulwanga ziye zehla i-3 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kule nyanga, zehla i-45 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukusuka kwincopho ngoNovemba ka-2021 ukuya kwi-311 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
Yintoni lento? Kwizibambiso ezithengiweyo yi-Federal Reserve kwimarike yesibini, xa imveliso yeemarike ingaphantsi kwezinga lekhuphoni lee-securities, i-Federal Reserve, njengabo bonke abantu, kufuneka ihlawule "i-premium" ngaphezu kwexabiso lobuso. Kodwa xa iibhondi zivuthiwe, iFed, njengaye wonke umntu, ihlawulwa ngokwexabiso lobuso. Ngamanye amazwi, ukutshintshiselana ngeentlawulo zekhuphoni eziphezulu kunezentengiso, kuya kubakho ilahleko eyinkunzi kwisixa seprimiyamu xa ibhondi ivuthwa.
Endaweni yokurekhoda ilahleko eyinkunzi xa ibhondi ikhula, i-Fed ihlawula iprimiyamu ngokunyuswa okuncinci kwiveki nganye kubomi bebhondi. I-Fed igcina i-premium eseleyo kwi-akhawunti eyahlukileyo.
Utshintshiselwano lwemali yebhanki ephakathi. I-Fed kudala ineendlela zokutshintshiselana kunye nezinye iibhanki eziphambili apho iibhanki eziphambili zinokutshintshisa imali yazo kunye ne-Fed yeedola ngokutshintshana ngokuvuthwa kwexesha elimiselweyo (zitsho iintsuku ezi-7), emva koko i-Fed ifumana imali yayo. iidola, kwaye enye ibhanki ephakathi iyayirhoxisa imali yayo. Ngoku kukho iidola ezingama-427 ezigidi kwiiswaps ezibalaseleyo (ezinobumba uM):
"Imali-mboleko esisiseko"-Ifestile yesaphulelo. Emva kokunyuka kwezinga lezolo, i-Fed ihlawulise iibhanki ze-4.75% ngonyaka ngokuboleka "kwifestile yesaphulelo". Ngoko yimali ebiza kakhulu ebhankini. Ukuba banokutsala abagcini-mali, banokuboleka imali ngexabiso eliphantsi. Ngoko ke imfuneko yokuboleka kwifestile yezaphulelo kumaxabiso aphezulu ngolo hlobo iyadida.
Ityala lokuqala laqala ukunyuka malunga nonyaka odlulileyo, lafikelela kwi-10 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ekupheleni kukaNovemba ka-2021, esephantsi. Embindini kaJanuwari, iBhanki ye-Federal Reserve yaseNew York yapapasha iposti yebhlog enesihloko esithi "Ukukhula kwamva nje kokubolekwa kwesaphulelo." Akakhange azibize ngamagama, kodwa ucebise ukuba uninzi lweebhanki ezincinci zisondele kwifestile yezaphulelo kwaye ukuqina komyinge kusenokuba kuzithobile okwethutyana izithuba zabo zokuhlawula amatyala.
Kodwa ukuboleka kwifestile yesaphulelo kunqabile ukususela ngoNovemba kwaye kumi kwi-4.7 yeebhiliyoni zeedola namhlanje. Yilandele nje:
Izibambiso ezinkulu ze-Fed zihlala zingumatshini wokwenza imali. Zisekhona, kodwa kunyaka odlulileyo waqala ukuhlawula inzala ephezulu - njengoko yaqala ukunyusa amaxabiso - kwimali efakwe kwiibhanki kwi-Fed ("indawo yokugcina") kwaye ininzi imali yemarike yemali ye-Treasury ngokusebenzisa izivumelwano zokubuyisela kwakhona ukubuyisela ubusuku (RRP). Ukususela ngoSeptemba, i-Fed iqalile ukuhlawula inzala eninzi kwi-reserves kunye ne-RRP kunezibambiso zayo.
I-Fed ilahlekelwe yi-18.8 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukusuka kuSeptemba ukuya kwi-31 kaDisemba, kodwa ifumene i-78 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Agasti, ngoko ifumene i-58.4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kunyaka opheleleyo. Kwinyanga edlulileyo, wabonisa ukuba udlulisele i-78 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwingeniso kwi-Ofisi kaNondyebo wase-US ngo-Agasti, imfuneko evela kwi-Federal Reserve.
Ezi ntlawulo ziqale ukwenza ilahleko ngoSeptemba kwaye zayekiswa. I-Fed ilandelela ezi lahleko qho ngeveki kwi-akhawunti ebizwa ngokuba yi-Transfers of Revenue to the US Treasury.
Kodwa ungakhathazeki. I-Federal Reserve idala eyayo imali, ayisoze iphelelwe yimali, ayisoze yatshona, kwaye yintoni enokuyenza ngaloo lahleko ngumcimbi wokubala. Oku kunokuthintelwa ngokuphatha ilahleko njenge-asethi ehlehlisiwe kwaye uyibeke kwi-akhawunti yetyala "Ukudluliselwa kwengeniso ehlawulwa kuNondyebo waseMelika".
Ngenxa yokuba ilahleko ye-akhawunti ye-liability yaphindwa kabini, i-akhawunti ye-capital iyonke yahlala ingatshintshanga malunga ne-41 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Ngamanye amazwi, ilahleko ayikhuphi inkunzi yeFed.
Uyathanda ukufunda iWOLF STREET kwaye ufuna ukuyixhasa? Unganikela. Ndinombulelo. Cofa iBeer & Iced Tea Mugs ukufunda indlela:
Ngoko, malunga ne-3.5 yezigidigidi zeedola. Eneneni, andithethi ukuba ndiyaphoxa okanye ndigxeka. Bangaphezu kolindelo lwam kunyaka ophelileyo.
Ngokubanzi, ngaba itshati "ye-asethi" iyonke ngokwenene ithetha nantoni na efana namandla okanye ulawulo kuqoqosho lwase-US okanye iziganeko?
Ukudala ukunyuka kwamaxabiso (umlinganiselo "wemali" kwii-asethi zangempela) "ukubuyisela" iintlekele zangaphambili (kunye nezilandelelanayo) azikho umkhwa wokuphumelela, kodwa irekhodi le-pathological.
Ulindelo lwakho luphantsi. Njengoko i-stock market iphinda ibuyise ilahleko yayo eninzi kwaye ibe liqamza elikhulu kwakhona, ungacinga ukuba bangafuna ukusika i-balance sheets ngokukhawuleza, kodwa ndicinga ukuba ingxaki apha kukuba abanakulahla ibhalansi yabo ngaphandle kokuthatha ilahleko. ilahleko yetafile. Ngoko ke, i-Fed kufuneka iqale inqande ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nenzala ephantsi, kwaye emva koko ikhuphe i-balance sheet ngesantya esikhawulezayo.
Ingcamango yam kukuba i-Fed izimisele ukunyusa amaxabiso okunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngenxa yokuba yonakalisa uqoqosho lwangempela, kodwa ayifuni ukuthengisa impahla ngenxa yokuba iya kuthatha inkxaso yemarike, elimaza bonke abahlobo babo abazizityebi kwiipokotho zabo. Emva kwayo yonke loo nto, iFed liqela nje leebhanki. Abakhathali mntu ngaphandle kwabo.
Andivumelani nethiyori yakho, ubuncinci ngendlela ekholisayo, kodwa ibonisa iphazili enomdla. Kanye njengakwikhasino, i-casino kufuneka ivumele umdlali ukuba afumane ixabiso elithile. Indlu inethuba lokuthatha lonke ixabiso, kodwa umdlalo uphelile. Kum, iFed ayizicingeli ngokungenalusini njengeqela leebhanki. Njengaye akukho mntu ungekho kwiqela, ndiye ndazuza kakhulu kule nkqubo yekhredithi kunye nemali, nangona amashumi eminyaka kunye neemeko.
Ukuqiniswa kobungakanani (QT) ye-MBS kucotha kangangokuba ivumela inkuthazo engathanga ngqo njengoko iimali ezibambe i-MBS zinokubonelela ngendawo yokubambisa simahla okanye ukuthenga ngokuthe ngqo.
Oku ayilo "uvuselelo olungathanga ngqo". Itsala kancinci. Kodwa isaqhuba.
Wonke umntu ubonakala ekhangela isizathu sokulahlekelwa yimali kwimarike yeebhere. Ngoku lixesha lokuphinda ufunde iMemoirs ye-Stock Manipulator phantsi kwe-pseudonym ka-Edwin Lefevre, ngubani ngokwenene u-Jesse Livermore, i-speculator. Akukho nto itshintshileyo. Imarike yemasheya ifana ncakasana.
Ngoku ndibona imfumba yeengqekembe zegolide, umhlakulo kunye neveni ebhalwe ecaleni elithi “Harry Houndstooth Hauling Company”.
Ngokungenankathalo mfutshane kwimarike. Le yi-rebound ebesiyilindile kwaye lixesha lokunyathela igesi.
I-SQQQ yaphakama, i-SRTY yanda, kwaye i-SPXU kunye ne-SDOW ekugqibeleni yaqonda (njengoko uWile E. Coyote ewa eliweni) ukuba kukho ukuwa okukhulu phambi kwethu.
Ukurhweba nge-algorithmic kuye kwaba nzima kakhulu, kunye nokukwazi ukulandelela ixesha elide kunye nokumisa okufutshane. Basebenzisa i-trailing ithengisa kunye nokuthenga okwenzeka ngesantya sokukhanya ukucacisa apho banokuthatha khona imarike, kubangela intlungu enkulu kumtyalo-mali ophakathi. Umzekelo, ukumisa ilahleko kwizitokhwe ezimfutshane zeenkampani ezibhangayo, ziqhuba yonke iavareji ehambayo, iFibonacci, i-avareji enesisindo somthamo, njl.njl kwimarike yemasheya. Esi sesinye sezizathu zokuba imarike yeebhere iya kuhlala ixesha elide. I-Fed inzima. uvimba akakwazi ukufikelela kuhlobo oluthile lwesoftware ethembekileyo ethathela ingqalelo zonke izinto eziguquguqukayo zoqoqosho (njengangentla apha) ukubala amanani amagalelo ahlukeneyo/amathuba exesha ukuze kuphunyezwe iithagethi zabo – yithi i-2% yokunyuka kwamaxabiso. I-algorithms inokonakala emva konyaka izama ukuqonda ukuba yenziwa njani
Akukho ndawo inde okanye imfutshane. Bamba indawo yegolide kodwa uthengise kwangoko kakhulu nge-28 kaDisemba, 2022. Ukuba bendimfutshane, ngendithumele oku njengesilumkiso kubathengisi abafutshane.
Ndilindele ukuba i-CPI yase-US ibephezulu kancinci ngoJanuwari kunoDisemba. ECanada, iCPI yayiphezulu kakhulu ngoJanuwari kunoDisemba. Ekubeni amanani e-CPI enyuka inyanga nenyanga, ndiza kuba nezikhundla ezinkulu ezimfutshane ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari okanye ndibulawe.
Ndivuma ngokupheleleyo. ndiyayithanda le ncwadi. Emva kokuthengisa zonke iinketho zeTesla ngoDisemba, ndaze ndathenga iinketho ezimbalwa zeTesla ngokulindela i-rally. Ngoku thenga ngoSeptemba/Januwari ubeka kwakhona - iNvidia, iApple, iMsft, njl. Masithembe ukuba isigaba esilandelayo sibukhali kwaye side njengezinye iimarike zeebhere.
“Ndathengisa yonke into endandinayo. Emva koko izabelo zenyuka kwakhona, ukuya kwinqanaba eliphezulu ngokufanelekileyo. Kwandicima. Ndandichanile kwaye ndingalunganga.
Hi ndlela leyi, uEdwin Lefebvre ungumbhali wokwenyani kunye nombhali wemihlathi. Wenza udliwano-ndlebe no-Jesse Livermore waza wabhala le ncwadi ngokusekelwe kolo dliwano-ndlebe. ULivermore naye unencwadi azibhalele yona, kodwa andisakhumbuli isihloko ngoku. Ngokuqinisekileyo akanguye umbhali oqeqeshiweyo, kwaye kuyabonakala.
Ndikhe ndeva intetho ethile, kubandakanywa noLacey Hunt, obonakala ngathi ubonisa ukuba oku kunokwenzeka.
andiyifuni. Iibhanki okwangoku zizama ukutsala iidiphozithi ezininzi kwaye zandise iminikelo yazo, ngakumbi ngokuthengisa izatifikethi zokurhweba kubathengi abatsha endaweni yokubonelela ngamaxabiso aphezulu kubathengi abakhoyo (abasahlawula irhafu yokunyaniseka). Iibhanki zinexesha elininzi lokunyusa olu hlobo lwenkxaso-mali yehoseyile, kwaye ziyakwenza oko. Xa ndijonga i-CD ye-brokerage yemveliso, ndiyibona kwi-akhawunti yam ye-brokerage enezinga lenzala ye-4.5% ukuya kwi-5%. Iibhanki ngoku zikhangela idipozithi. Kukho imali eninzi kwiimali zemarike yemali, kwaye ukuba iibhanki zibonelela ngamaxabiso aphezulu, ziya kunyanzela enye yemali ukuba isuke kwiimali zemarike yemali iye kwiiCD kunye neeakhawunti zokonga. Iibhanki azifuni ukwenza oku kuba kunyusa iindleko zazo zenkxaso-mali kwaye ibeka uxinzelelo kwimida yazo, kodwa ziyayenza.
"Sisalindele nayiphi na inkcazo evela kwi-Fed ukuba iqwalasela ngokunyanisekileyo ukuthengiswa ngokuthe ngqo kwe-MBS ukunyusa i-rollover kwi-35 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngenyanga. Kwinqanaba langoku, kuya kufuneka ithengise phakathi kwe-15 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kunye ne-20 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngenyanga. Iirhuluneli ezininzi ze-Fed ziye zachaza ukuba i-Fed inokugqibela ukuya kwelo cala. "
Njengoko ndidelela iPow Pow, ndiya kunika ikhredithi ukuba banokuqalisa. Siyathemba ukuba oku kuya kuba nefuthe ngokwenene ekwehleni kwamaxabiso ezindlu kwaye kukhawulezise isantya sangoku sokuhla kwexabiso. Umbuzo ngowokuba kutheni belinde ixesha elide kangaka ukuba baqalise? Ngaba i-Fed ayinakuqala ukuthengisa i-MBS, mhlawumbi ngamanani amancinci, ngexesha elifanayo i-QT iqala? Ndiyazi ukuba bayayivumela ukuba iqhube ikhosi yayo, kodwa ukuba ngokwenene abayithandi ukuba ne-MBS ezincwadini zabo, unokucinga ukuba ukukhuthaza + ukuthengisa ngaxeshanye kuya kuba sesona sisombululo.
Phoenix_Ikki, kunzima kum ukwazi ukuba ingakanani i-MBS ye-Fed ngaphambi kwe-2006-2009. Ngaba i-Fed inazo naziphi na ii-asethi? Ukuba i-Fed ayizange ibe nayo i-MBS kwixesha elidlulileyo kwaye imarike ye-mortgage yanda, kutheni i-Fed yokuthengisa i-MBS yayo ngoku inefuthe elibi kumazinga e-mortgage kunye nemarike yezindlu?
Bakhetha ityala lendlu kunetyala elingagunyaziswanga. Baphinde bathenga iibhondi zeshishini/eziyinkunkuma, nangona zizixa ezincinci, eziye zawela ngaphandle komthamo wesigunyaziso. Kananjalo ayilo "ukumiswa kwemkt kwimigangatho ye-accounting ye-mkt."
Ixesha lokuposa: Feb-28-2023